Author, Mike Smith
In this article I take a look at the Euro to Pound forecast for the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026. I’ll give you my exchange rate predictions and talk about the key factors driving the EUR/GBP rate. Last updated on 06/11/2025.
Will the Euro Soar Higher Against the Pound?
The Euro has been locked in a steady uptrend against the Pound since late February.
Increased investor uncertainty has seen a shift out of the risk-sensitive Pound in favour of the perceived security of the Euro.
With geo-political tensions on the rise and Trump’s trade wars triggering a risk-off trading environment, the Euro continues to be viewed by most market participants as a safer haven than the Pound.
This is unlikely to change any time soon.
In short, the Euro’s march against the Pound was partly driven by safe haven flows of funds, backed-up by the stronger-than-anticipated tone of data coming out of the eurozone.
Strong growth and jobs data in Europe further supported the Euro as well.
These figures have reassured the European Central Bank, with members striking a positive tone in recent commentaries.
Stable levels of price rises and steady growth across the EU’s 27 nation states have made another near-term interest rate cut from the ECB less likely.
Euro to Pound Forecast for 2025 into 2026
On the other side of things the Pound has languished ahead of Rachel Reeves’ (UK Chancellor of the Exchequer) Budget statement due on 26th November.
Investors have been slow to forget then-Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous fiscal statement of Autumn 2022, with bond market participants showing a marked reluctance to hold UK gilts during the Summer months and Britain’s national debt now weighing in at well above £3 trillion.
We forecast the Euro to Pound rate will reach £0.899 by January 2026 as investors price-in quicker than expected Bank of England rate cuts.
Any misstep by Chancellor Reeves in her Autumn Budget would likely see Sterling heavily marked-down during the final weeks of 2025, triggering a move to this level even sooner.
The currency market is fast-moving, with the Euro to Pound rate changing second-by-second throughout each trading day.
Exchange rate forecasts can alter just as quickly.
It helps to have a currency expert on your side, monitoring the market for you.
If you would like to find out our latest EUR/GBP rates or be kept abreast of market trends and upcoming news and events, request a quote below.
EUR to GBP forecast poll (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter)
Some of the leading FX websites regularly carry out polls of exchange rate forecasts among various experts and analysts.
This is a good way to get an overview of the consensus view over different intervals.
One of the better forecast polls is produced by FX Street.
You can view their latest EUR to GBP poll here.
To be clear, I have no affiliation with them.
I just like the straightforward presentation of information, and you get to see the views of around 15 analysts in 1 week, 1 month and 1 quarter frame.
You don’t have to go through every view (how boring).
At the top of the page is a nice little summary of the overall sentiment showing the percentage with a bullish, bearish or sideways bias.
In the case of EUR/GBP, bullish would indicate the Euro is expected to rise; bearish would indicate an expected fall and sideways would indicate those sitting firmly on the fence.
The point of all this is not to reach a place of certainty. You will only ever have certainty in hindsight (we’re all guilty of that sometimes).
However, a poll can be a good way of capturing forward-looking data and giving you a feel for the strength of conviction among analysts.
EUR to GBP forecast weekly – my approach
There’s only a small number of things that can affect a weekly EUR-to-GBP forecast.
A weekly timeframe is so small that you can narrow down your focus.
I do some simple checks using both fundamental and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves evaluating news, events and economic data that influence currency markets.
To get a quick snapshot of what is scheduled for release in the coming week, I suggest you look at the DailyFX economic calendar.
There are plenty of free economic calendars online. Still, I like this one because the layout is easy to understand, and it assigns each piece of economic data with a low, medium, or high level of importance.
I concentrate on high-impact events as they have historically proven to cause far greater market volatility.
A calendar is a helpful way of managing risk.
If you are cautious by nature and you can’t afford for the rate to move against you, then it makes sense to convert your Euro to Sterling before the release of a high-importance event.
If you are more comfortable taking on the risk, you may prefer to rely on technical analysis.
Technical analysis involves the use of market data and historical charts to identify trends and predict price movements.
There are so many websites that offer free EUR/GBP charts, but a lot don’t add any technical analysis.
Investing.com is a good free source of technical analysis of the Euro to Pound rate.
Just select the timeframe you want (in orange), and it will give you a summary of whether it’s a Buy (Euro to strengthen) or a Sell (Euro to weaken) based on market momentum and technical indicators.
I appreciate doing this kind of analysis won’t be everyone’s cup of tea.
If you would rather speak to someone more familiar with foreign exchange markets, it can be beneficial to get in touch with a money transfer specialist.
While most money transfer companies these days are online apps, others, such as ourselves, are happy to discuss and understand your requirements and help guide you on exchange rate trends, forecasts and market news.
EUR/GBP forecast long-term – some practical advice
Longer periods call for a different approach.
Time brings the opportunity for larger moves – good or bad.
While a 1% swing would be considered a big move in the EUR/GBP rate in a week, over 6 months, it’s not unusual to see swings of 5% or more.
It’s because broader macroeconomic themes have time to play out over longer periods. There is also a greater likelihood that an unexpected, significant event could unfold.
While time gives you flexibility, it can also lead to procrastination.
This is a common thing I hear:
- It’s not the right time. The Euro is going up; I’m going to wait for it to go up some more.
- It’s not the right time. The Euro is going down; I’m going to wait for it to come back up.
Because the Euro is always going either up or down, you may fall into the trap of thinking it is never the perfect time to exchange your money.
It is human nature to always want a better rate, no matter what the actual rate is.
I’m not suggesting you accept whatever rate is put in front of you.
But I am suggesting you think through what rate you would be satisfied with or would allow you to fulfil your life plans (which is the real objective here).
As a former stockbroker, I am reminded of what my old boss used to love to say. It’s a quote from a comic strip character, Pogo “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
Human emotions can easily get in the way of logic, particularly when it comes to financial decisions.
My practical advice for longer-term EUR/GBP forecasting is simply to use historical reference points as a guide to your decision.
Start by looking at the EUR/GBP chart using different timeframes. I tend to look at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years.
I’m seeking to identify areas of support (troughs) and resistance (peaks).
As a Euro seller, you want to sell near a peak to maximise your position. It’s often a case of being vigilant and not too greedy.
You might find it useful to speak to a professional who is watching rates continuously throughout the day.
You may have neither the time nor the inclination to watch the exchange rates all day yourself and so may miss the best opportunities.
It’s something we offer are part of our money transfer service.
Need guidance on exchange rates?
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The way we operate is fundamentally different.
We work with our clients to achieve a better rate and take advantage of favourable moves.
At Key Currency, we give you a one-to-one service. We will understand the amount of money you wish to exchange and the timescale you have.
We can then discuss and monitor the rate for you, keeping you up-to-date and letting you know if the exchange rate moves in your favour.
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