Author, Mike Smith
We’ll look at the Euro to Pound trends and forecasts for 2025 and the key drivers of the exchange rate going forward.
Is Euro to Pound going up or down?
The Euro to Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) has shown strong gains in 2025, rising around 4.5% year-to-date as of 31 July. This marks a notable rebound after two consecutive years of weakness.
In 2024, EUR/GBP fell by 4.6%, following a 2.3% decline in 2023. The current recovery highlights how quickly sentiment in currency markets can shift.
Why has the Euro Strenghtened in 2025?
A major driver behind the Euro’s rise this year has been a broad sell-off in the US Dollar. Investors have rotated away from the Dollar as a safe-haven asset amid global trade tensions and political uncertainty. The Euro, as one of the world’s most traded currencies, has been a key beneficiary of this move.
Geopolitical Factors at Play
The Euro’s strength is also tied to ongoing global events, including the Russia–Ukraine war and the Israel–Palestine conflict. When geopolitical risks rise, investors often shift into perceived safe-haven currencies such as the Euro. However, should political solutions be found, the Euro’s appeal as a safe haven could weaken.
UK vs Eurozone Outlook
On a fundamental level, the UK economy currently appears more resilient than the Eurozone. This divergence has created a significant interest rate differential, which may provide the Pound with an advantage going forward.
EUR/GBP Forecast: What Next for the Euro to Pound?
While the Euro has performed well in 2025 so far, the underlying economic picture suggests the Pound may have more upside potential relative to the Euro. If UK growth continues to outperform and interest rate spreads remain wide, the EUR/GBP exchange rate could face downward pressure in the months ahead.
Euro to Pound Forecast for 2025 (6 months, 12 months)
As a whole, we see the Euro as remaining vulnerable to further selling.
We forecast the Euro to Pound exchange rate to reach €0.83 by December 2025 and €0.79 by June 2026.
The Pound should be supported by the UK’s better economic propsects, higher interest rates and lower risk from Trump trade tariffs.
The UK government is running expansionary policies while core European countries like France and Germany are fighting stagnation.
In addition, the European Union faces greater risk from Trump’s trade and tariff policies.
The EU runs a big trade surplus with the USA – something Donald Trump is likely to attack at some point. Whereas trade between the US and UK is fairly balanced, making the UK an unlikely target for tariffs.
It is worth pointing out that there are many variables that impact exchange rates daily.
Forecasts will always get updated over time as news and events unfold.
Forecasting exchange rates is ultimately about making an informed judgement based on probability and using that to your advantage.
If you would like to find out our latest EUR/GBP rates or be kept abreast of market trends and upcoming news and events, request a quote below.
EUR to GBP forecast poll (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter)
Some of the leading FX websites regularly carry out polls of exchange rate forecasts among various experts and analysts.
This is a good way to get an overview of the consensus view over different intervals.
One of the better forecast polls is produced by FX Street.
You can view their latest EUR to GBP poll here.
To be clear, I have no affiliation with them.
I just like the straightforward presentation of information, and you get to see the views of around 15 analysts in 1 week, 1 month and 1 quarter frame.
You don’t have to go through every view (how boring).
At the top of the page is a nice little summary of the overall sentiment showing the percentage with a bullish, bearish or sideways bias.
In the case of EUR/GBP, bullish would indicate the Euro is expected to rise; bearish would indicate an expected fall and sideways would indicate those sitting firmly on the fence.
The point of all this is not to reach a place of certainty. You will only ever have certainty in hindsight (we’re all guilty of that sometimes).
However, a poll can be a good way of capturing forward-looking data and giving you a feel for the strength of conviction among analysts.
EUR to GBP forecast weekly – my approach
There’s only a small number of things that can affect a weekly EUR-to-GBP forecast.
A weekly timeframe is so small that you can narrow down your focus.
I do some simple checks using both fundamental and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves evaluating news, events and economic data that influence currency markets.
To get a quick snapshot of what is scheduled for release in the coming week, I suggest you look at the DailyFX economic calendar.
There are plenty of free economic calendars online. Still, I like this one because the layout is easy to understand, and it assigns each piece of economic data with a low, medium, or high level of importance.
I concentrate on high-impact events as they have historically proven to cause far greater market volatility.
A calendar is a helpful way of managing risk.
If you are cautious by nature and you can’t afford for the rate to move against you, then it makes sense to convert your Euro to Sterling before the release of a high-importance event.
If you are more comfortable taking on the risk, you may prefer to rely on technical analysis.
Technical analysis involves the use of market data and historical charts to identify trends and predict price movements.
There are so many websites that offer free EUR/GBP charts, but a lot don’t add any technical analysis.
Investing.com is a good free source of technical analysis of the Euro to Pound rate.
Just select the timeframe you want (in orange), and it will give you a summary of whether it’s a Buy (Euro to strengthen) or a Sell (Euro to weaken) based on market momentum and technical indicators.
I appreciate doing this kind of analysis won’t be everyone’s cup of tea.
If you would rather speak to someone more familiar with foreign exchange markets, it can be beneficial to get in touch with a money transfer specialist.
While most money transfer companies these days are online apps, others, such as ourselves, are happy to discuss and understand your requirements and help guide you on exchange rate trends, forecasts and market news.
EUR/GBP forecast long-term – some practical advice
Longer periods call for a different approach.
Time brings the opportunity for larger moves – good or bad.
While a 1% swing would be considered a big move in the EUR/GBP rate in a week, over 6 months, it’s not unusual to see swings of 5% or more.
It’s because broader macroeconomic themes have time to play out over longer periods. There is also a greater likelihood that an unexpected, significant event could unfold.
While time gives you flexibility, it can also lead to procrastination.
This is a common thing I hear:
- It’s not the right time. The Euro is going up; I’m going to wait for it to go up some more.
- It’s not the right time. The Euro is going down; I’m going to wait for it to come back up.
Because the Euro is always going either up or down, you may fall into the trap of thinking it is never the perfect time to exchange your money.
It is human nature to always want a better rate, no matter what the actual rate is.
I’m not suggesting you accept whatever rate is put in front of you.
But I am suggesting you think through what rate you would be satisfied with or would allow you to fulfil your life plans (which is the real objective here).
As a former stockbroker, I am reminded of what my old boss used to love to say. It’s a quote from a comic strip character, Pogo “We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
Human emotions can easily get in the way of logic, particularly when it comes to financial decisions.
My practical advice for longer-term EUR/GBP forecasting is simply to use historical reference points as a guide to your decision.
Start by looking at the EUR/GBP chart using different timeframes. I tend to look at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, and 5 years.
I’m seeking to identify areas of support (troughs) and resistance (peaks).
As a Euro seller, you want to sell near a peak to maximise your position. It’s often a case of being vigilant and not too greedy.
You might find it useful to speak to a professional who is watching rates continuously throughout the day.
You may have neither the time nor the inclination to watch the exchange rates all day yourself and so may miss the best opportunities.
It’s something we offer are part of our money transfer service.
Need guidance on exchange rates?
These days most money transfer companies just give you access to a platform or app and leave you to do everything yourself.
The way we operate is fundamentally different.
We work with our clients to achieve a better rate and take advantage of favourable moves.
At Key Currency, we give you a one-to-one service. We will understand the amount of money you wish to exchange and the timescale you have.
We can then discuss and monitor the rate for you, keeping you up-to-date and letting you know if the exchange rate moves in your favour.
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