Pound to Euro Forecast – November 2026

Pound to Euro Forecast

Our forecast: We expect the Pound to Euro exchange rate to remain close to €1.19 in the near term, but see greater risk of GBP/EUR falling back towards €1.17 than rising above €1.20 during the remainder of 2026.

The Pound has performed well against the Euro in 2026, and has risen further in recent weeks.

GBP/EUR is now at around €1.19, its highest level for more than a year. It was close to €1.16 as recently as 24 September.

One reason for Sterling’s strength has been interest rates.

The Bank of England’s base rate currently stands at 3.75%, compared with the European Central Bank’s deposit rate of 2.50%. Higher UK interest rates can make Sterling more attractive to international investors.

However, this advantage could narrow.

Inflation remains a concern across Europe. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September, from 3.2% in August, and the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% in September. If the ECB raises rates again by more than markets expect, this could provide greater support for the Euro.

There is also a question of how much good news is already reflected in the Pound.

At around €1.19, GBP/EUR is at its highest level for more than a year. That makes another significant move higher harder without a clear improvement in the UK economic outlook, or a further loss of confidence in the Euro.

Why has the Pound risen against the Euro since late September?

GBP/EUR rose from around €1.16 on 24 September to around €1.19, a gain of about 3%. On 23 October it reached its highest level for more than a year.

The main reason has been weakness in the Euro. Reuters reported on 22 October that investors have been moving money out of euro zone assets, with concern about French public finances pushing French government bond yields to their highest in 24 years.

At the same time, markets expect the Bank of England to keep raising rates. Traders expect at least three rises of a quarter of a percentage point by April, starting on 5 November. About two rises are priced in for the ECB.

UK rates are also higher to begin with. The Bank of England’s base rate is 3.75%, against 2.50% for the ECB’s deposit rate. That makes Sterling more attractive to investors who borrow in Euros to invest in Pounds.

Euro area inflation also rose to 3.8% in September, from 3.2%. The ECB raised its rate to 2.50% in September, but the Euro has still weakened against the Pound since.

The Pound is now near the top of its range, which is why we see a pullback as more likely than another big rise.

Will the Pound rise against the Euro?

Our view is that the Pound could stay strong against the Euro in the short term, but we do not expect a sustained move above €1.20 during the remainder of 2026.

Instead, we think GBP/EUR is more likely to trade between €1.16 and €1.20, with a move back towards €1.17–€1.18 more likely if worries about the Euro ease or the Bank of England sounds cautious on 5 November.

Our central forecast is for GBP/EUR to be around €1.17–€1.19 by the end of 2026.

Several dates could change this view. The UK Budget is on 28 October and the ECB decides on 29 October. The Bank of England decides on 5 November, with new forecasts. Both banks announce decisions on 17 December.

Of course, currency forecasts are never certain. Inflation, interest rates, economic growth and political developments can quickly change the outlook.

Is it a good time to buy Euros with Pounds?

A good way to view today’s Pound to Euro exchange rate is to compare it to past data. Sometimes you need to stand back a little to gain perspective.

In October 2026, the Pound to Euro rate is trading about 2% above its 5-year average. This makes it a good time to buy Euros with Pounds.

In the last 5 years:

• The Average for the Pound to Euro rate has been €1.1669.
• The High for the Pound to Euro rate was €1.2148 (11 Dec 2024).
• The Low for the Pound to Euro rate was €1.1161 (22 Sep 2022).

The live chart below goes up to one year. Use the table under it for recent highs, lows and the average.

To convert an amount at today’s rate, use the Pound to euro converter.

You could consider any rate above the average as a good time to buy Euros with your Pounds.

When you are a buyer of Euros, the higher the rate, the more Euros you get for each Pound you have.

Bear in mind, exchange rates move every few seconds. So picking a good time to buy is important.

Whatever your timeframe, it’s always important to keep an eye on the rate and choose a favourable time to exchange your Pounds into Euros. If you get in touch, we can help you with this.