Author, Mike Smith
In this article I take a look at the Euro to Dollar forecast for the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026. I’ll give you my exchange rate predictions and talk about the key factors driving the EUR/USD rate.
What is the direction of travel for the EUR/USD exchange rate?
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate spent the first half of 2025 recording steady gains.
Investors shunned the Dollar over fears that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy might potentially crash the American economy.
However, Trump’s mid-year decision to firstly delay increases in tariffs, and then to reduce them, has helped steady the Dollar.
What’s been happening for EUR/USD more recently?
The European Central Bank aggressively cut interest rates down to 2% in mid-2025.
And despite pressure from President Trump, the US Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate at a much higher 4.0%.
Stronger-than-expected American jobs and inflation data convinced the US central bank that lower rates were not a good idea, boosting the Dollar.
Meanwhile, an end to the passing of a short-term spending bill by the US Senate this week has provided the Dollar with further short-term impetus.
However, the 42 day government shutdown in the USA caused concern amongst investors.
There’s now one less reason for investors to avoid the Dollar.
Euro to Dollar Forecast for Late 2025 / Early 2026
The US Dollar is likely to enjoy further near-term support in the markets.
With the current downtrend for EUR/USD remaining intact, we forecast that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate will touch $1.14 in the short term.
Financial markets are pricing in a 65% likelihood of a US interest rate cut in December.
This means that the announcement of a rate cut, if it materialises, will not be unexpected and will not excessively hurt the Dollar.
However, a surprise ‘hold’ decision from the US Federal Reserve would bring it renewed support.
On the other side of the Atlantic, investors are pricing in a 96% likelihood that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold at their current 2.0%.
It seems probable that the ECB has now completed its rate-cutting for this cycle, leaving market participants to focus on low levels of inflation across the eurozone.
Is it a good time to buy Dollars with Euros?
Buyers of Dollars want a high Euro to Dollar exchange rate.
The Euro to Dollar rate is often abbreviated to EUR/USD.
The higher the rate, the more Dollars you get for each Euro you exchange.
To understand whether the current EUR/USD exchange rate is good or bad, it’s best to compare it to recent historical data.
At the moment, the Euro to Dollar rate is trending around the mid-to-high end of its 5-year trading range.
This means that relative to the last 5 years, it’s a pretty good time to buy Dollars with Euros.
Over the last 5 years:
The high for EUR/USD was $1.2333 in January 2021.
The low for EUR/USD was $0.9589 in September 2022.
The highs and lows act as a simple benchmark for the current rate.
There are always short-term trends that can present opportunities too.
Most people don’t have years up their sleeves to wait for the perfect exchange rate.
And even if you did, you will only know it’s perfect in hindsight.
It may be better to track current rates and take advantage of a favourable move.
That’s where we can help.
An important part of our service is to monitor exchange rates on behalf of our clients and help them take advantage of favourable moves.
Request a quick quote below to see what we can offer you.
Euro to Dollar Forecast Poll (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter)
All exchange rate forecasts are just someone’s opinion.
And no one is correct 100% of the time.
So I think it’s worth seeing a range of opinions before making up your mind.
Here’s something you might find useful…
FX Street provide a handy EUR/USD Forecast Poll.
The page gives you the latest opinions of around 10 different analysts.
It also provides a bullish or bearish bias on the EUR/GBP rate over 1 week, 1 month and 1 quarter.
This Euro to Dollar forecast is ‘bullish’, which means the rate is expected to rise.
Conversely, a ‘bearish’ bias means the EUR/USD rate is predicted to fall.
Something to note – in the short term, most analysts keep their predictions very close to the existing rate.
It takes a brave analyst to risk being very different from the majority.
But there will always be some differences of opinion.
This is why a collection of expert opinions can give you a good gauge of market feeling and help you understand what could be most likely to happen.
Euro to Dollar Forecast Weekly – a common-sense approach
In the short term, over say a week or so, there aren’t that many things that can change.
For that reason, short-term predictions can reflect the current trend, rather than a definite prediction of what experts think will happen.
If you look at an economic calendar, you can see the upcoming events that may affect the Euro to Dollar exchange rate.
I often use DailyFX the Economic Calendar to see what’s upcoming in the finance world.
You can filter the countries you’re interested in and whether events are of low, medium or high importance.
If a significant event is scheduled to happen soon, it could be an opportunity to take advantage of a potential spike in your favour. Or it could be time to act before the exchange rate moves against you.
Remember though, all exchange rate forecasts are still opinions, and no event guarantees that the rate will move in the direction you think.
This is why I would suggest avoiding being too greedy.
If the current rate isn’t currently in your favour, it’s easy to get sucked into hoping the market will make positive moves in the long term.
The market can just as quickly run away with itself in the wrong direction.
Focus on the short term and move when the market makes short-term gains.
If you don’t feel comfortable assessing market forecasts yourself, why not speak to one of our currency exchange representatives?
An important part of our service is to offer assistance and help you talk through your transfer.
So many money transfer companies make you manage the transfer entirely, using an online app.
That’s not the way we do things.
Our representatives take the time to understand why you’re making your transfer and find the best time for you to make it.
They can give you an indication of what could affect the exchange rate in the short and medium term.
This can make your decision far easier when making the transfer.
Euro to Dollar Forecast next 6 months – practical advice
When you look at a forecast over a longer period, it increases the likelihood of a more dramatic movement in the Euro to Dollar exchange rate.
In a week, a 1% swing in exchange rates is considered a large movement.
Over 6 months though, a 5% swing is not uncommon.
Simply put, there’s more time when significant events can happen to affect the strength of the Euro and Dollar.
With this in mind, when should you transfer your money?
I’d recommend making the transfer at a time shortly when the rate moves in your favour.
This sounds simple – but it’s often best not to over complicate your transfer.
Don’t fall into the trap of waiting months for the perfect exchange rate to magically appear, only to be forced to make the transfer at a lower exchange rate.
The typical reasoning for waiting that people regularly say to us is:
“The Dollar is getting stronger; I’ll wait for it to go up further.”
or…
“The Dollar is getting weaker; I’ll wait for it to recover.
It’s easy to think you’ll find the absolute perfect time to make your currency transfer.
With that mindset, sadly the perfect time often passes people by.
Of course, timing matters.
To find a good time to make the transfer, you can use historical exchange rates as a guide.
While looking at historical Euro to Dollar exchange rate charts, I would start by asking these questions:
- When did the rate last trade here?
- How does the rate compare to the high and low of the last 5 years?
- How long has the current trend been running?
Answering these questions will give you a good indication of whether now is a good time to make your currency transfer.
At Key Currency, you can speak directly to a currency exchange expert who can offer insight and help you find the best time for you to make your transfer.
Need guidance on EUR/USD exchange rates?
We’ve all got busy lives.
For most of us, the currency market isn’t something we have time to watch all day.
That’s why it can often pay to speak to a currency exchange expert.
These days, you will find most money transfer companies want you to do the entire money transfer by yourself.
But if you make the transfer at the wrong time, it could potentially cost you thousands.
And you want to make sure all the international payment details are correct.
Why take any chances?
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