Author, Mike Smith
After the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate, I’m taking a fresh view of the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate forecast for the coming weeks. Here’s my revised view on where GBP/AUD is heading and the major factors affecting the rate.
What’s happening with the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate?
The Pound has given up ground against the Australian Dollar since the turn of the year.
Sterling was holding at above the psychologically-significant 2:1 threshold in the first week of the year.
However, the pair has been on the slide since mid-January, dropping to its lowest level since late 2024 during trading on 3rd February.
December’s Australian inflation data sparked the improvement for the Aussie Dollar.
The data revealed the pace of Australian price rises had jumped to almost 4%.
The Australian currency enjoyed sustained support as a result.
Low levels of Australian joblessness and robust levels of household consumption added to AUD’s momentum.
How have commodity prices affected GBP/AUD?
Exports of raw materials account for over 25% of Australia’s annual GDP.
Economists classify the Aussie currency as a ‘Commodity Dollar’ as a result.
Gold, Silver and Copper prices have all reached all time highs in January 2026, triggering further support for AUD.
Economists’ forecasts for precious metals and Copper for the rest of 2026 diverge.
Some believe their prices have become overstretched and are due a correction.
Others believe that the price of Gold, in particular, has further to run.
The direction of travel will determine levels on GBP/AUD for the remainder of this year.
How has the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reacted?
The RBA announced in the early hours of 3rd February that it was raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85%.
The move was widely-anticipated by market-watchers, limiting the immediate downside for GBPAUD.
However, the RBA’s accompanying commentary which described Australian inflation returning to a ‘not acceptable’ trajectory may help the Aussie moving forward.
How is the Pound performing?
The Pound Sterling has performed on an even keel in recent weeks against most currencies.
Support for the Pound has been steady ahead of the Bank of England monetary policy announcement due on 5th February.
The BoE is expected to hold its headline interest rate at its current level of 3.75%.
My Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate forecast for February
I forecast that the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate will edge lower towards $1.92 in coming weeks.
This is a level which GBP/AUD last visited in Autumn 2024.
This proven level of technical support should halt the near-term fall for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.
The currency market exchange rates change second-by-second.
Exchange rate forecasts change just as quickly, but don’t worry, there’s an expert at the end of the phone who can help.
As part of our money transfer service, we keep our clients up-to-date with the latest exchange rate trends and opportunities.
Why not request a quote below and see if we can help?
What is a good GBP to AUD rate?
The GBP to AUD rate tells you how many Australian Dollars can be bought for 1 British Pound.
Buyers of Australian Dollars (AUD) want a high rate.
Buyers of British Pounds (GBP) want a low rate.
It’s worth getting some historical context to help understand whether the current GBP to AUD rate is good or bad.
Over the past 10 years, the average GBP/AUD exchange rate has been $1.75.
That can be used as an easy benchmark for today.
At present, the GBP/AUD rate is sitting well above its long-term average of $1.75, making it a good time to buy Australian Dollars.
In August 2023 and July 2024, the GBP/AUD rate almost hit the $2 level. That’s a rarity these days.
Since Brexit, the GBP/AUD rate has only got above the $2 mark for a brief period in March/April 2020. With the rate back near $2, it’s a good indication that the rate is currently strong.
It’s also worth looking at the high and low points to get a feel for where the current rate sits within its trading range.
Over the last decade, the GBP/AUD rate reached a high of $2.2037 on 7th September 2015 and a low of $1.4428 on 12th March 2013 (source: Bank of England).
At present, the current GBP/AUD rate is closer to the historical highs than the lows.
This is another indicator of the favourable GBP to AUD rate today.
If you’re interested, check out our guide on how to transfer money from the UK to Australia.
GBP to AUD weekly forecasts (tips and tools)
Exchange rate forecasts depend on the window of time you are looking at.
For example, you can have positive short-term indicators alongside negative long-term indicators. The two can co-exist.
Forecasting always depends on your time frame.
Over shorter time frames – hours, days and weeks – there’s only a small number of things that can affect the GBP to AUD rate. It means you can narrow down your focus.
To keep track of upcoming news, take a look at the DailyFX economic calendar.
While there are plenty of other free economic calendars, I prefer this one because of its clear layout and that each piece of data is given a low, medium, or high level of importance.
I tend to disregard the low and medium-impact events and just concentrate on those with a high impact.
An economic calendar is not necessarily a great way of forecasting exchange rates, but it can be useful to help manage risk.
As currency brokers, we will look at the calendar and may hedge the risk before an important event.
If you are cautious by nature or cannot afford the GBP/AUD rate to move against you, it makes sense to convert your money ahead of a risk event.
Another popular way of looking at GBP/AUD trends and forecasts is to use technical analysis.
This involves using price patterns to identify trends and predict future exchange rate movements.
You can get a feel for recent price signals for the GBP to AUD exchange rate here.
Just select the timeframe you want (in orange), and it will give you a summary of whether it’s a Buy (GBP to rise) or a Sell (GBP to fall) using technical analysis.
I appreciate not everyone has the time or knowledge to analyse exchange rates.
You might find it easier to speak to someone that follows this day in, day out.
Ay Key Currency, part of our service is to help guide you on exchange rate trends and market opportunities.
GBP to AUD forecast 12 months+ (some practical advice)
Longer periods call for a different approach to forecasting.
Short-term news becomes irrelevant. Bug themes have time to play out.
My view is that there are so many factors that could affect longer-term GBP/AUD rates that you are best to focus on historical reference points to guide your timing.
From a practical point of view, I would look at historical rates using a GBP/AUD chart – 1 year and 5 years will give you a good enough perspective.
Look to identify areas of support (troughs) and resistance (peaks), as well as the current underlying trend.
You may also find it useful to speak to a foreign exchange broker who is watching rates continuously throughout the day.
It’s something we offer are part of our money transfer service.
Need some guidance on exchange rates?
Getting a good or bad exchange rate can make a massive financial difference to you.
In the past 5 years alone, the GBP/AUD rate as high as $2.05 and as low as $1.59.
That’s over a 20% swing from high to low.
It can be one of the more volatile currency pairs.
Even daily fluctuations in the GBP to AUD rate can be big, so it’s worth keeping a close eye on things.
At Key Currency, we are different from other money transfer companies.
We are not some online app or platform that makes you do all the work yourself.
We will discuss and agree on the right time to exchange your money, by understanding your requirements and taking advantage of any favourable movements.
Even if you are not ready to exchange your money, we can monitor the GBP/AUD rate for you and keep you up-to-date on market movements.
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What’s more, Key Currency is regulated by the FCA as an Authorised Payment Institution (No. 753989). All money transfers are conducted through safeguarded client accounts.
If you would like to find out more about our service or our find out our latest rates, get a free quote below.