Author, Mike Smith
A GBP to AUD forecast is an expectation of the exchange rate at a future date.
GBP to AUD forecasts are used to help decide whether it’s a good or bad time to exchange your money.
What is a good GBP to AUD rate?
The GBP to AUD rate tells you how many Australian Dollars can be bought for 1 British Pound.
Buyers of Australian Dollars (AUD) want a high rate.
Buyers of British Pounds (GBP) want a low rate.
It’s worth getting some historical context to help understand whether the current GBP to AUD rate is good or bad.
Over the past 10 years, the average GBP/AUD exchange rate has been $1.75.
That can be used as an easy benchmark for today.
At present, the GBP/AUD rate is sitting well above its long-term average of $1.75, making it a good time to buy Australian Dollars.
To recap, in August 2023, the GBP/AUD rate almost hit the $2 level. That’s a rarity these days. Since Brexit, the GBP/AUD rate has only got above the $2 mark for a brief period in March/April 2020. With the rate back near $2, it’s a good indication that the rate is currently strong.
It’s also worth looking at the high and low points to get a feel for where the current rate sits within its trading range.
Over the last decade, the GBP/AUD rate reached a high of $2.2037 on 7th September 2015 and a low of $1.4428 on 12th March 2013 (source: Bank of England).
At present, the current GBP/AUD rate is closer to the historical highs than the lows.
This is another indicator of the favourable GBP to AUD rate today.
If you’re looking to send money from the UK to Australia our guidance will show you how!
Is the Pound going to rise against the Australian Dollar?
Overall, the GBP/AUD enjoyed a good run in 2023 and although the rate fell back in the last few months of the year, the upward momentum looks to have resumed in 2024.
Here are the main factors driving GBP to AUD exchange rate forecasts:
- Inflation is considered more of a problem in the UK than in Australia
- The UK has raised interest rates more than Australia
- In 2024, the Australian economy is forecast to grow more than the UK
The current inflation rates in the UK and Australia have converged in the past 6 months.
Both countries have raised interest rates to combat the problem.
However, the Reserve Bank of Australia is hinting at being more accomodative in the near term than the Bank of England.
Higher interest rates tend to strengthen a currency as they attract foreign investment.
We see the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates before the Bank of England. It’s a reason why the GBP/AUD rate is staying strong.
While higher interest rates help contain inflation, the flipside is they hurt economic growth too.
The OECD is forecasting Australia will grow 1.4% in 2024 whereas the UK economy is expected to grow 0.7%.
Although Australia is set to grow at double the rate of the UK, we see interest rates as the biggest influence on exchange rates right now.
The UK’s more aggressive interest rate policy looks to be driving the rise in the GBP/AUD rate.
If the UK inflation rate begins to taper off (as it has done elsewhere), we believe the British Pound could easily give up its recent gains.
As part of our service, we help you make the most of exchange rate trends and volatility.
We can even let you know when the GBP to AUD exchange rate moves in your favour!
Why not request a quote below?
GBP to AUD weekly forecasts (tips and tools)
Exchange rate forecasts depend on the window of time you are looking at.
For example, you can have positive short-term indicators alongside negative long-term indicators. The two can co-exist.
Forecasting always depends on your time frame.
Over shorter time frames – hours, days and weeks – there’s only a small number of things that can affect the GBP to AUD rate. It means you can narrow down your focus.
To keep track of upcoming news, take a look at the DailyFX economic calendar.
While there are plenty of other free economic calendars, I prefer this one because of its clear layout and that each piece of data is given a low, medium, or high level of importance.
I tend to disregard the low and medium-impact events and just concentrate on those with a high impact.
An economic calendar is not necessarily a great way of forecasting exchange rates, but it can be useful to help manage risk.
As currency brokers, we will look at the calendar and may hedge the risk before an important event.
If you are cautious by nature or cannot afford the GBP/AUD rate to move against you, it makes sense to convert your money ahead of a risk event.
Another popular way of looking at GBP/AUD trends and forecasts is to use technical analysis.
This involves using price patterns to identify trends and predict future exchange rate movements.
You can get a feel for recent price signals for the GBP to AUD exchange rate here.
Just select the timeframe you want (in orange), and it will give you a summary of whether it’s a Buy (GBP to rise) or a Sell (GBP to fall) using technical analysis.
I appreciate not everyone has the time or knowledge to analyse exchange rates.
You might find it easier to speak to someone that follows this day in, day out.
Ay Key Currency, part of our service is to help guide you on exchange rate trends and market opportunities.
GBP to AUD forecast 12 months+ (some practical advice)
Longer periods call for a different approach to forecasting.
Short-term news becomes irrelevant. Bug themes have time to play out.
My view is that there are so many factors that could affect longer-term GBP/AUD rates that you are best to focus on historical reference points to guide your timing.
From a practical point of view, I would look at historical rates using a GBP/AUD chart – 1 year and 5 years will give you a good enough perspective.
Look to identify areas of support (troughs) and resistance (peaks), as well as the current underlying trend.
You may also find it useful to speak to a foreign exchange broker who is watching rates continuously throughout the day.
It’s something we offer are part of our money transfer service.
Need some guidance on exchange rates?
Getting a good or bad exchange rate can make a massive financial difference to you.
In the past 5 years alone, the GBP/AUD rate as high as $2.05 and as low as $1.59.
That’s over a 20% swing from high to low.
It can be one of the more volatile currency pairs.
Even daily fluctuations in the GBP to AUD rate can be big, so it’s worth keeping a close eye on things.
At Key Currency, we are different from other money transfer companies.
We are not some online app or platform that makes you do all the work yourself.
We will discuss and agree on the right time to exchange your money, by understanding your requirements and taking advantage of any favourable movements.
Even if you are not ready to exchange your money, we can monitor the GBP/AUD rate for you and keep you up-to-date on market movements.
We have a 5-star rating on Trustpilot, based on over 1,800 customer reviews.
What’s more, Key Currency is regulated by the FCA as an Authorised Payment Institution (No. 753989). All money transfers are conducted through safeguarded client accounts.
If you would like to find out more about our service or our find out our latest rates, get a free quote below.